China’s battery market, new materials
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First, the global market status
Strong demand for battery materials, market growth year-on-year as the global economy on the fast-growing demand for an increase in energy materials, as well as mobile phones, notebook computers, digital cameras, video cameras, automobiles and other products on the new, highly efficient, environmentally-friendly materials, energy demand, global lithium batteries, solar batteries, fuel cells and promote the development of the rapid development of related materials industries. In lithium batteries, solar cells, fuel cell market, driven by strong growth in the global battery market, the steady growth of new materials. From the market size in 2000, the global battery market for new materials 1.38 billion U.S. dollars in 2004, reached 2.44 billion U.S. dollars, from 2000 to 2004 compound rate of 15.3%. Downstream to promote consumer electronics, batteries lithium-ion battery market has grown rapidly, despite the global sales volume has increased year by year, but the lithium battery market is slightly affected by the impact of price fluctuations in the market in 2004 reached 6.03 billion U.S. dollars; the rapid development of solar cells in 2004, the global market size reached 2.79 billion U.S. dollars; fuel cells because of high energy density, no need to charge a long time use, low noise, low pollution and so on, the development prospects of huge size of the market in 2004 reached 500 million U.S. dollars. Supply and demand effects of price changes, lithium battery material market, with some fluctuations in the lithium battery market growth, the lithium battery material market as a whole tended to rise. 2000 sales of 470 million U.S. dollars, but because of price fluctuations in 2001, fell to 390 million U.S. dollars, followed by an increase in 2004 reached 580 million U.S. dollars, from 2000 to 2004 CAGR of 5.4%. Materials in the lithium battery market segments, due to the decline in prices, resulting in lithium battery sales decline in part of materials. From the lithium battery material market share breakdown, the cathode material, cathode material, electrolyte, separator basic market share trends were stable. Clean, environmentally-friendly emphasis, the increased demand for solar cell materials silicon solar cells in series, single crystal silicon solar cell conversion efficiency of the highest, most mature technology. Monocrystalline silicon solar cell conversion efficiency is the highest in the large-scale applications and industrial production is still dominant. Important raw materials in the silicon solar cell market, the global market continue to maintain an upward trend in 2004, reached 1.64 billion U.S. dollars, from 2000 to 2004 compound rate of 18.6%.
Potential concern about the emerging new materials, fuel cell
Fuel cells because of high energy density, no need to charge a long time use, low noise, low pollution, etc., are of great importance at present, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States and other countries signed InternationalPartnershipfortheHydrogenEcon-omy ( IPHE) the provisions of hydrogen to be the creation of formal international cooperation partners. From the market size in 2004, the global fuel cell materials market reached 220 million U.S. dollars.
Second, the development of China’s market status
Battery market, the rapid growth of new materials, the market structure to be improved
China’s fast-growing economy’s demand for energy has increased year by year to promote the lithium batteries, solar cells, fuel cell development, and related materials market driven growth. After 2001, domestic new material entering the field of battery manufacturers began to increase in the production of domestic manufacturers of new materials in the battery performance and price competitiveness gradually increased, and domestic battery manufacturers have begun using new materials of domestic battery at the same time, domestic manufacturers the beginning of the basis of the existing production capacity to expand production scale.
From the market size in 2004 will reach 2.77 billion, from 2000 to 2004 compound rate of 62.2%.
From the market structure, China’s battery market, new materials, mainly in lithium battery materials and material-based solar cells. Because of the large-scale application of fuel cells still need to be away for some time, and domestic manufacturers in the technology and production technology gap with international standards, domestic fuel cell materials, almost all rely on imports.
Lithium batteries relatively complete industrial chain, materials supporting occupied by a certain advantage
Materials in the lithium battery market, the rapid rise of Chinese manufacturers, CITIC UNITA solid profits, and Yuyao, SHANSHAN science and technology, companies such as Cathay Pacific Huarong in the cathode material, cathode material, electrolyte gradually enhance market competitiveness, and in isolated membrane market needs to catch up. Li-ion battery in the downstream market, the Shenzhen BYD, BAK Shenzhen, Shenzhen邦凯Technology, TCL and other payments to vendors in the global market for lithium batteries considerable market share, China’s lithium batteries have been formed relatively complete industrial chain in the Li-ion battery supporting material occupied by certain advantages.
The rapid development of solar cell market, increased demand for silicon material
In 2002, the relevant state ministries and commissions to start a “non-western provinces, autonomous regions, rural electric power plan”, by solar and small wind power to solve the seven western provinces, autonomous regions, rural electricity consumption of the problem. Start of this project a great boost to the solar power industry, has built a number of domestic solar cell packaging line so that the annual solar cell production is increasing rapidly.
At present, solar silicon production enterprises are mainly monocrystalline silicon plant in Luoyang, Hebei and Sichuan ningjin silicon base Emei Semiconductor Materials Factory and other manufacturers, including single crystal silicon base ningjin Hebei is the world’s largest monocrystalline silicon production base of solar energy, accounting for monocrystalline silicon solar energy world market share of around 25%.
Solar cell material in the downstream market, the current domestic production of solar cells are mainly enterprises Baoding Yingli New Energy, Suntech, Kaifeng Solar battery factory, Yunnan Semiconductor Device Factory, Qinhuangdao Huamei Photovoltaic Electronics, Zhejiang Sino-Italian solar energy, solar power, Ningbo, Beijing porcelain (Tianjin) Solar Energy and other companies, for a total annual production capacity of 120MW or more in the.
Unreasonable investment, fuel cell materials technology breakthroughs to be
The entire fuel cell industry chain is divided into three levels: upstream suppliers of raw materials and energy, the middle reaches of the fuel cell manufacturers, the lower reaches of the specific application of fuel cell manufacturers. At present, the state invested in the expensive fuel cell (the 863 electric cars special about 800 million total investment), but the main investments are in the fuel cell, for upstream and downstream suppliers and manufacturers to get into the less, making China’s fuel cell like a枣核industry, the middle two small, which will be detrimental to the industry.
Third, the development trend of battery materials
(A) the impact of factors 1, policies in support of alternative energy, the important items included in the battery material.
Li-ion battery materials, the Chinese “15″, “863″ will be the key material for lithium battery and the field of new materials as a major research project gave a strong impetus to lithium battery materials research and development. Fuel cells, in order to meet the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games, to achieve “Green Olympics” as well as the objectives of the World Expo 2010 Shanghai, Beijing and Shanghai to develop a series of laws and regulations, policies and measures to promote the application of fuel cell vehicles and the promotion of reduce vehicle emissions, protect the environment. Solar cell area, in October 2003, the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Science and Technology to develop solar energy resources in the future 5-year Development Plan, National Development and Reform Commission “Bright Project” fund-raising 10 billion yuan will be used to promote the application of solar power technology, plans to 2005 solar power generation system, the country reached a total installed capacity of 300 MW.
2, the price advantage of the gradual manifestation of the growing space to broaden the international market.
Material in lithium batteries as an example, the application of lithium battery technology increasingly concentrated in high-end products, small size, large capacity, slow decay characteristic of lithium batteries has stimulated domestic production capacity of enterprises in technological development, promote China’s scientific research institutions and manufacturers to further improve the technology to improve quality and explore the international market for the foundation. South Korean mobile phone producer, the high-end cell phone lithium battery cathode material used in the original basic imported from Japan, the current lithium-ion battery materials in some manufacturers have begun to export to South Korea Li-ion battery cathode material.
3, the core material and manufacturing process needs improvement.
Li-ion battery materials, to enhance the capacity of anode materials; brand, price, functional additives and patent protection is the development of lithium battery electrolyte disorders; solar cell materials, deep-processing capacity of domestic manufacturers to be strengthened to improve efficiency, reduce costs and expand scale application of solar cells is the key; fuel cells need to develop standards, material quality, technology, efficiency to be improved and costs to be reduced.
(B) the trend of a product, lithium nickel cobalt oxide, nano-carbon materials, organic electrolyte and mixed with the thin film will be the isolation of lithium battery materials, the future direction of development.
Cathode material in lithium batteries, the choice of material lithium cobalt, nickel, lithium, and lithium manganese complex oxide, such as the above, the future of lithium nickel cobalt oxide is likely to replace the existing lithium cobalt oxide (LithiumCobaltOxide) of the cathode materials.
At present, commonly used cathode material is Mesocarbon microspheres with spherical structure, packing density, and has a layered structure with parallel elements, the representation of a lithium battery cathode material for possible future use of nano-carbon materials (Nano-sizedCarbonMaterial).
Electrolyte, the major trends in recent years is the nature of a number of different organic electrolyte to be mixed use, such as the ethane dimethyl (DimethoxyEthane; DME), dimethyl carbonate (DimethylCarbonate; DMC) and Second dimethyl sulfoxide (DimethylSul-foxido; DMSO) and so on.
Isolation membrane in general, the use of polyethylene, polypropylene or other resin porous membrane as a separation membrane, is thin of technology trends.
2, single crystal silicon and polysilicon is temporarily in the lead, thin-film solar cells into the mainstream of the future market.
Silicon solar cells as a result of photovoltaic energy conversion efficiency than other types of solar cells high, solar energy is still the mainstream market. Long-term use of amorphous silicon solar cells when the issue of stability; CdS / CdTe and amorphous silicon solar cell efficiency is almost, but the issue of environmental protection; the other CIS (CopperIndiumSelenide) economic efficiency is not high, short-term difficulties to commercialization, chemical energy battery life and stability of both the issue of duration. As a result of thin-film solar cells with the characteristics of low production costs, and has a large area suitable for the manufacture of the advantages, so the long term, thin-film solar cells may become the mainstream market.
3, porous structure of catalyst materials, high-activity, membrane thickness, strength upgrade.
Fuel cell electrode of the fuel oxidation reaction occurred with the reduction reaction of reducing the occurrence of electrochemical reaction sites, the quality of their performance lies in the performance of catalysts, electrode materials and electrode manufacturing. Fuel cell catalyst materials can enhance the porous structure of the actual fuel cell operating current density and reduce the polarization effect, increasing the surface area involved in the response of the electrode. Catalyst in DMFC as an example, at this stage is mainly the use of DMFC catalyst precious metal-based catalysts, and the cost of precious metal-based catalysts of high catalytic activity is not satisfactory, therefore, high efficiency, high activity and high dispersion material is a fuel cell catalyst development.
(C) price trends 1, lithium battery material manufacturers increasing competition caused by a slight decline in prices.
Although the price of lithium batteries at this stage due to the increase in the cost of cobalt and up to promote the next few years a shortage of cobalt will be to alleviate the situation; In addition, with the introduction of lithium manganese oxide cathode material for battery manufacturers mature technology, manufacturing process and the stabilization of the material properties, the average unit price will also show a downward trend. As cathode materials, electrolyte, isolation film lithium battery materials, the average price in 2003 showed a rise in the trend from 2005 to 2009 is expected to come on stream because of the increasing number of manufacturers, but also in technology and production process on mature, the average price of the battery materials will decline slightly.
2, technological progress, caused by expansion of solar panels and lower prices.
Although the cost of solar power panels is still high, but due to technical advances as well as traditional energy costs to upgrade, as well as the global solar cell industry in recent years the scale of production increases every year, the average price of solar panels there is a marked decline, over the next 10 years can be reduced by 1 / 2 or more.
3, the rising proportion of domestic production, fuel cell materials costs have fallen significantly.
China’s fuel-cell materials have not yet made large-scale, the key materials still rely on imports. To proton exchange membrane fuel cell as an example, control the prices of key components of the battery is a precious metal catalyst, ion-conductive membrane and bipolar plate. The vast majority of these materials depend on imports, not only in your price, and inconvenient to buy, a long time, the source is under control. In fact the above-mentioned materials can be made, the existing studies have shown that these key materials will enable the battery after domestic prices to current prices 1 / 5 of the following.
(D) the size of the forecast with the rapid development of China’s economy on the battery to increase the demand for new materials, as well as mobile phones, notebook computers, digital cameras, video cameras, automobiles and other products on the new, highly efficient, environmentally-friendly materials, the strong demand for batteries, CCID Consulting is expected to from 2005 to 2009, new battery materials market in China will be 37.0 percent compound growth rate of rapid growth, in 2005 the market size was 35.9 billion yuan, 12.63 billion yuan achieved in 2009. (See Figure 1)
Fourth, the market development strategy: actively engaged in the industrial chain integration
Battery of new materials not only by the upper reaches of the market fluctuations in raw material prices and supply changes, but also by the downstream effects of the battery market. Such as cobalt metal price fluctuations affect the cost of battery materials, and material impact on output and price, it is essential to integrate upstream and downstream cells.
CCID Consulting believes that the field of new materials for the battery industry chain integration has three major advantages: First, the industrial chain division of labor between the height of the deepening of the allocation of resources to effectively improve the efficiency and labor productivity; second is industrial clustering effect of reduced production costs, in favor of price competition; The third is to spread the risks, lower raw material prices and lower reaches of the upper reaches of the battery market demand fluctuations. In fact, UNITA CITIC solid profits, Jade Bird Huaguang, Yingli New Energy Resources Co., Ltd. and other companies have entered the lower reaches of the battery area, the formation of battery materials, battery combination of upstream and downstream production.
CCID Consulting suggested that the battery manufacturers should be strengthened and new materials upstream and downstream industry chain integration efforts by the industry chain integration of the main manufacturers, the League of upstream firms (materials, components, equipment), the middle reaches of manufacturers (battery manufacturers) and downstream customers (mobile phones, notebook computers, digital cameras, camcorders, electric bicycles, electric vehicles, such as manufacturers), the formation of material, battery production, the combination of upstream and downstream applications, improve efficiency, reduce costs and spread the risks.
Fifth, the proposed investment opportunities
At present, new materials involved in the battery business of listed companies CITIC Guoan (000,839), (600,884), Jade Bird Huaguang (600,076) and the essence Veken (600,152), etc.; in the lower reaches of the battery market, new materials, there are (600,215), Aucma (600,336), Tianwei change security (600,550), Jade Bird Huaguang (600076), TCL (000100), Fenghua Hi-Tech (000636), Xianyang deflection (000,697), double Gordon (000835 ), Magicstor (000,920) and so on.
CCID Consulting’s involvement in the current domestic battery and battery new materials industry, listing companies in the statistical analysis, research shows that: the field of battery technology and new materials of high barriers to entry, high return on investment, lasted for a long time to become listed enterprises, especially source of profit for the company to expand and enhance the performance of one of the channels.
In view of this, given China’s CCID Consulting battery of new materials, investment opportunities in market segments recommendations:
(A) of the battery cathode, anode material, the electrolyte has a relatively mature market, while isolating film lithium batteries in China contains a larger process of market opportunities.
(B) solar cell R & D of new materials and applications should be focused on have different emphases, and organic materials will be the first choice for solar cell materials.
(C) fuel cell and new materials should actively research and development, aimed at the future of electric vehicles on the huge demand for fuel cells, efforts to achieve a catalyst, conductive membrane and bipolar plate materials such as large-scale domestic applications.